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Thread: The Fairy-tale About Azrael and the Evil Tap's Hidden Commander Nerf

  1. #11
    Three-Star Admiral ASR1927's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rx3 View Post
    from my observations, usually when you meet an opponent lower in level and/or force, you tend to curse them at the rates which i also "feel" are the same as night owls. the percentages drop when you meet someone markedly higher in force or level.
    Yes this feels as a correct observation. Btw it was me you was talking with in Pandora about Facebook group.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by ASR1927 View Post
    Yes this feels as a correct observation. Btw it was me you was talking with in Pandora about Facebook group.
    ahahaha R dude! wassup.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nachteule View Post
    I think this is a good sample of the areas where we have trouble to be objective/fair. Against weaker players it does not matter so much if curse happens or not. The sheer brute force of a better developed fleet is enough to win here. Against much stronger opponents you rely on the curse to have at least a chance to win. Every failed curse causes much more disappointment and moreover even if cursed successfully that can still mean a loss if opponent is just too strong.
    i agree, but frankly good experiences trump bad experiences but the difference here is hope and expectations. in any case this is the 'grey' area like you said. but i was sort of counting the score, don't have numbers to prove it tho but definite drop in percentages and like u said even if i successfully cursed, i'll still fail to win more often than not (in the case of higher speed/force/level opponents).

    edit: don't know if specific commanders' augmented (prisms/gal) stats play a bigger role. like for example, most of the time against stronger opponents and also fighting Azraels, they appear to curse more by my count compared to me but that % seems lower than your %. so perhaps if there isn't much difference between the 2 Azraels, then it becomes more like 50/50, depending on who goes first and if u r in the line of fire.
    Last edited by rx3; June 4th, 2017 at 15:33.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nachteule View Post

    Attachment 2639

    The green cells just mark the most likely outcome for a target count.

    For more than 1 target the chance to curse ALL available targets is always below 50%. But for 3 targets you have a chance of nearly 80% to curse at least 2 targets.

    And as long-term Azrael user I can confirm that those stats "feel" correct.
    this is funny
    if your data is correct I must reconsider T$F%=vodoo
    because in each case chance to curse is exactly 70%
    unbelievable .....
    Last edited by Ender Wiggin; June 6th, 2017 at 09:15.

  5. #15
    Section Leader Nachteule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ender Wiggin View Post
    this is funny
    if your data is correct I must reconsider T$F%=vodoo
    because in each case chance to curse is exactly 70%
    unbelievable .....
    Not sure what you are talking about...
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  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nachteule View Post

    Attachment 2639

    Not sure what you are talking about...
    Abouth math

    1 opponent 70% I don't know what is your data but I assume from 100 hits 70 was curse
    two opponent 70% curse means 140 curse from 100 hits
    according with your data 49% two opponents means 49*2 =98 curse and 42 curse on one opponent 98+42=140 so is exact 70%
    3 opponent 70% curse means 210 curse in 100 hits
    34*3+44*2+19 = 209 this means 69,6666 % error 0.3
    4 oponent same 69,6666
    5 opponents is 70,33333
    again .... if your data is correct will result 69.94 % chance to curse 0.06 error is not too much when some random generator is involved and will be even less with more try. I assumed 100 try on each shot and I transformed your percent in actual curse deployed on singular or multiple target

  7. #17
    Section Leader Nachteule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ender Wiggin View Post
    Abouth math

    1 opponent 70% I don't know what is your data but I assume from 100 hits 70 was curse
    two opponent 70% curse means 140 curse from 100 hits
    according with your data 49% two opponents means 49*2 =98 curse and 42 curse on one opponent 98+42=140 so is exact 70%
    3 opponent 70% curse means 210 curse in 100 hits
    34*3+44*2+19 = 209 this means 69,6666 % error 0.3
    4 oponent same 69,6666
    5 opponents is 70,33333
    again .... if your data is correct will result 69.94 % chance to curse 0.06 error is not too much when some random generator is involved and will be even less with more try. I assumed 100 try on each shot and I transformed your percent in actual curse deployed on singular or multiple target
    I did not conduct any experiments. I talk about chances, theory... you can calculate the probabilities using binomial distribution.

    I make the following assumptions:
    - The given chance (probability) to curse a hit target is correct and therefore 70% (aka 0.7).
    - The curse is calculated independently for each hit target.

    Your results must lead to 70% more or less if you calculate correctly.

    Underlying theory is described here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
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  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by volente View Post
    One thing I can surely say is that during the monopoly event when Azrael was released he had 100% chance to curse the targets. It was obvious from the galaxy league fights where he always made it 1 of 1, 2 of 2, 3 of 3.
    This only fact proves that Tap has also freedom to nerf any commander if they want to.

    To prove it you need to collect battle stats with azrael in your and opponents formations.

    I did this 2-3 months ago and it was around 70% for both cases. This analysis for such an impressive commander should be done regularly.
    The only time they do that is when a new commander has been out for a few days and they adjust. Sometimes they improve the stats but they always let us know when they are doing that. Either in the description or via in-game news. They never just have these hidden "free radicals" to influence the outcomes. I agree it seems like everyone seems to be 100% on you but there are times when I wipe a guy's 1.3B fleet with my 950M fleet and I go "no frickin way". And he's got all those neat red commanders and I have just one. I just got lucky with having the perfect formation against his and had some really timely hits.

  9. #19
    I don't know about your math and stuff, but my Azrael is total crap as well. He curses 2 out of 3 targets in best case, but most of the time only 1 out of 3 targets. And ofc, when there is only 1 target and i NEED the fakin curse on it to win the battle, it never (i mean 100% of the time) works. Starting to think to replace Azrael with Louise. At least Louise can save a ship or two from time to time. Now, i lose most of the battles coz the retarded Azrael donsent work. 70% chance to curse my arse...

  10. #20
    Three-Star Admiral ASR1927's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stayko Staykov View Post
    I don't know about your math and stuff, but my Azrael is total crap as well. He curses 2 out of 3 targets in best case, but most of the time only 1 out of 3 targets. And ofc, when there is only 1 target and i NEED the fakin curse on it to win the battle, it never (i mean 100% of the time) works. Starting to think to replace Azrael with Louise. At least Louise can save a ship or two from time to time. Now, i lose most of the battles coz the retarded Azrael donsent work. 70% chance to curse my arse...
    Same here, when Azrael hit just one enemy it's very rare to get a curse. It don't feel nearly 70% anyway. I also think of replacing him with Louise.
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