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Thread: Galactic Chairmen Guide :: Galaxy Legend Monopoly Analysis

  1. #1
    Section Leader Nachteule's Avatar
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    Galactic Chairmen Guide :: Galaxy Legend Monopoly Analysis

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    Galaxy Legend Monopoly Analysis


    Recently a new mechanism for selling in-game content was introduced - Galaxy Monopoly. The commanders Alfred and currently Dor are the first who were offered via Galaxy Monopoly. It's time to have a closer look at the new feature.


    Game Concept

    Galaxy Monopoly refers to the widely known board game Monopoly (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopoly_(game)). Similar to the original game Galaxy Monopoly shows a quadrangular game-board but with only 20 fields. A single 6-sided dice is rolled to move forward on the game-board. Contrary to the family game the dice roll is not free but has to be paid with Credits or items. The required payment for rolling the dice increases with each roll. All fields except "START" give a reward. The rewards (except field 8 and 18) are multiplied by the lap number (1-4). On completion (hit or pass START) of any round a special bonus item from the left sidebar can be claimed. The sidebar reward for finishing round 4 is the DNA or the Augmentation Chips replacement. After completing lap 4 the game can be reset to its initial state for free. A reset can be forced at any time for 500 Credits.



    Costs

    The costs of a commander from a Galaxy Monopoly event can be very low if the DNA fields 8 and 18 are both hit in the first lap. Players have reported to have obtained Alfred for less then 2k Credits. On the other hand if none of the DNA fields is hit while moving forward the 4 laps and additionally small numbers are rolled in abundance it can become quite costly. Things get worse if the currency items is shop items like in Treasure Hunts. The items have to be purchased from packs in the shop and the results are luck-dependent, too. The Alfred Galaxy Monopoly event was about 30k Credits per DNA. In the current Dor event a single DNA can be as expensive as 50k Credits!


    Ergonomics

    To avoid waste of Credits only the necessary items for the required best-case dice rolls should be purchased from the shop. But that means many switches between Galaxy Monopoly UI and Shop UI. Especially in the last lap each dice throwing is very costly but many fields have a chance to hit a DNA in a way (field 2-7, 12-17). Additionally each dice roll takes some time. Personally I do not like Treasure Hunts because if I go for a costly commander I want the DNA fast. Watching the wheel and waiting for it to stop is a waste of time in my opinion. For Galaxy Monopoly it is similar and because there is more switching to the shop the Galaxy Monopoly takes even longer. At least for the current type with items as currency. With Credits as currency like in the Alfred Monopoly the time requirement is ok. What could be better is the claiming of the lap rewards. You have to tap those boxes explicitly in order to collect your lap price (this includes the DNA).


    Mathematics

    tap4fun used a very well-known board game as model for its new event type - Monopoly. Additionally one of the oldest tools to determine luck - a dice - is displayed as means for gambling. Most players probably know Monopoly or have played the board game and I assume all players know how a dice works. So they have expectations how this works. But does it?

    NO! IT DOES NOT!!

    Many players used some Credits or their free items to get to the first DNA field on the game-board. I collected those data and made some calculations. If the dice is fair the chance to hit field 8 is 26.8% (details here). That means out of 4 players starting a Galaxy Legend Monopoly game 1 should hit the first DNA (position 8). How many players from your alliance were lucky???

    From the collected data and my own trials I know in reality this happens so rarely. Maybe 1 player out of 200 hits field 8 in first lap.

    But the chances are similarly bad for the other DNA field (#18) and for all other laps. From the following table you can see out of 151 dice rolls 103 times a DNA field was in dice roll range (1-6 fields away). For each dice roll then the chance (in case of a fair dice) would have been 1/6 to actually hit the DNA field. But out of 103 trials only 2 times a DNA field was really hit.


    Even the overall average of the dice rolls seem to be biased. With a value of 3.15 this is quite a deviation from the ideal value 3.5. (Probably more data is needed to exclude fluctation effects.)



    Conclusion

    Take care with Galaxy Monopoly!! In bar and chest events at least it is stated in the event description that you buy a chance. Although the representation with a linear bar or imaginable items like chests is designed to mislead players. Abusing a dice - which is an all over the world known fair gambling tool - to suggest a fair event is in my honest opinion simply fraudulent given the manipulations tap4fun has implemented.

    I suppose the Treasure Hunt event class did not fulfill the revenue expectations. The entry barrier is just too high. In a bar or chest event the final price can be high (and will be high in most cases) but there is a small chance to get the commander DNA cheap. Additionally with many experienced and engaged players communicating in the background (Skype, Facebook, Line, Forum) there is a lot of high quality information about bar and chest events and recommendations if they are worth to invest or not.

    Therefore tap4fun probably designed the Galaxy Monopoly as Treasure Hunt 2.0. Very hard to calculate/estimate and fluctuating price and 2 baits per lap raising players' hopes for lucky cheap shots.

    Don't get lured then you can't get trapped!!
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    Raw data can be found here: Google Spreadsheet
    Last edited by Nachteule; June 30th, 2016 at 13:39.
    Galactic Chairman
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    Event log: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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  2. #2
    Excellent analysis, thank you!

  3. #3
    Major General Maxamusviper's Avatar
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    Amazing work with the math to back it up, great job well done!! ����
    Maxamusviper.s167 (Android)
    World 1070 Level100 The Swarm (Chair)
    Proud member of TCT The Conspiracy Theory

  4. #4
    If you want to, you can get a couple of devs and use the google spreadsheet to reverse engineer their algorithm in their "RNG" algorithm hahaha!

  5. #5
    Four-Star Admiral Kris's Avatar
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    I usually go for a single lap around the board and try my luck while its cheap. But even that is a trap as with the last Alfred event you get suckered into trying...just one more....and with the 3 DNA available i spent 8k credits and got junk. They have handed out bosons so thats now complete so why and how did i get suckered into trying to win a commander when the other rewards adds nothing to my game. It wont be happening again!
    Kris.s3 World 906
    FS +7 (Mileena) Fitzgerald +7 (Paccar) Azrael +7 (Violette) Star Lord +7 (Elsa) Raksha +7 (Krill)

    You can follow the crowd and be as miserable as the rest or you can be different and happy

  6. #6
    Five-Star Admiral Frankie's Avatar
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    Here I have same experience as Kris. I get mostly junk but I try just for fun always 1 round

    Fantastic work Nachteule!!!
    Last edited by Frankie; July 1st, 2016 at 13:57.
    Frankie.s214 , World 1117\ Merged, Android
    PVP: Sniper Ursa [ +7], Dark Russian [+7], Crazy Frog [+7], Handsome Evil [ +7], FS [+7]

    No longer playing GL ...

  7. #7
    Good information but monopoly is very expensive.. i spent too much credits on this

  8. #8
    One-Star Admiral
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    I tracked last Alfred event for 1 loop on about 15 accounts.
    Not a single one of them actually got a DNA. I think that said enough about the fair chances of the dice
    богдан.s387/World 187/iOS

  9. #9
    Thanks for some great information, I was unsure of how bad it can get in the Monopoly game and with my luck i will stay far away from it unless i am flush with credits lol.

  10. #10
    Thanks for the very well done demonstration. It's obviously a scam. But I guess they so not have to comply with some gambling authorities.
    Bossa.s84, World 987 😠

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